Thursday, March 22, 2007

Stop Scratching and Start Reading !

Many of us have been debating about the India's chance of making to Super-8. Fortunately Sri Lanka's win over Bangladesh did world of good for India. India needs one win against Sri Lanka, any margin will do. Bangladesh to make it to the Super Eight, Sri Lanka must beat India. (A washout will do nicely too, but with a reserve day in hand, it's unlikely that a decisive result won't be reached.) or they need to beat Bermuda with a huge margin.

Here are the scenarios which decide the fate of this group of death.

India versus Sri Lanka
Scenario 1 Sri Lanka bat first, score 260, and India win with one over to spare

Sri Lanka's NRR will drop from 4.59 to 2.99, while India's will drop marginally to 1.72.

Scenario 2 India bat first, score 265, and win by 2 runs

Sri Lanka's NRR will be 2.98, while India's will be 1.69.

For Bangladesh to then make it to the Super 8, they'll need to go past India's NRR. However, as the two scenarios below show, the gap between the two NRRs is just too large.

Bangladesh versus Bermuda
Scenario 1 Bangladesh score 300, and restrict Bermuda to 120 to win by 180 runs

Despite the huge margin of victory, Bangladesh's NRR will only improve to -0.08.

Scenario 2 Bermuda are bundled out for 120, and Bangladesh wipe off the target in 15 overs

In this case, due to the fact that Bangladesh will only bat 15 overs, their NRR will only increase to -0.7.

In either case, Bangladesh's NRR will be well below India's which means the only chance for them to get into the Super 8 is if Sri Lanka get past India. Given Sri Lanka's awesome form in their two matchs so far, though, it will need a brave man to bet against that happening.

source: cricinfo

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